These are existing BEAM planning estimates, not newly measured 2026 regional statistics or predictions of individual business closures.
The business scenario
The documented scenario starts with approximately 43,000 employer businesses, applies a 41% baby-boomer ownership assumption, then a 75% potential-closure assumption.
43,000 × 41% × 75% = 13,222.5
Approximately 13,000 businesses
Rounding this scenario does not make it a measured regional closure count. Different assumptions would produce different results.
What goes into the calculation?
- Regional baseline: approximately 43,000 employer businesses
- The documented method allocates Pennsylvania’s small-employer business count using a 19% regional population share. It assumes business share follows population share. The original statewide input, source edition, allocation year, and county definition are not established in the available method record. This is an approximate baseline, not a direct regional count.
- Ownership assumption: 41%
- BEAM applies this share to the regional baseline: 43,000 × 41% = 17,630. The original external source, year, and population behind the share have not been established in the available record. It is retained as a scenario assumption.
- Potential-closure assumption: 75%
- This is a BEAM planning assumption, historically attributed in BEAM’s method record to a practitioner estimate from Murphy Business. A written study, sample, time period, and measured regional rate are not established. It is not a finding that 75% of local businesses will close.
- Planning horizon: five to ten years
- This is a scenario window, not measured retirement timing. The youngest baby boomers turn 62 in 2026 and 67 in 2031. Social Security’s full retirement age is 67 for people born in 1960 or later; benefit eligibility does not determine when an owner retires or sells.
Jobs and payroll: an evidence gap
The homepage’s 150,000 jobs and $7.2 billion in payroll are existing BEAM planning estimates. Their original inputs, data year, allocation rules, and reproducible calculations are not established in the available source record. They should not be treated as independently verified regional totals.
The linked SBA profile does not publish these regional risk figures. We do not infer a derivation by working backward from the displayed numbers.
Read the sources in context
The SBA’s Pennsylvania 2025 profile (PDF) supplies statewide background; it is not a verified update of this historical baseline. Its employment and payroll table uses 2022 data. Employer firms and nonemployer businesses are different populations.
McKinsey and Gallup research in our library provides additional context on national transitions and owner intentions. Those sources do not validate this combined regional scenario or prove BEAM outcomes.
Using the estimate
Use this scenario to ask better questions about preparation and local business continuity. Decisions about a particular business need its own circumstances and evidence. A useful next step may be preparing someone to step in, exploring a purchase, speaking with a professional, or deciding to wait.